A quarterly survey issued by British banks, Standard Chartered, reported that the economic agents in the country is among the most optimistic in the middle broke down the world economy, especially in the third quarter of this.
The survey concluded that 9 out of 10 Indonesian companies believe their business wheel will run better in the third quarter of this. Even 81 percent of the perpetrators were, believe the level of demand will increase 10 percent from the Asia average of 66 percent.
Not only that, 6 out of 10 Indonesian companies also expect the level of business profits will rise above the average.
In conducting this survey, Stanchart interviewed at least 350 C-level executives in a number of Asia from a variety of industries. In this survey, a Japanese businessman was taken into account.
"Overall, the world economy is still focused on the position to defend themselves," said Head of Equity Strategy Standard Chartered, Clive McDonnell, as quoted from page CNBC.
Indonesia optimism of economic agents to the business during the third quarter of 2012 can not be separated from the large domestic consumption. It is this factor which is rarely possessed by neighboring countries in Asia.
However, McDonnell admitted that Indonesia is still a little to rely on exports to India and China. However, it did not reduce the strength of domestic consumption in the country.
Economic growth is also inseparable from the rise in per capita income of the people of Indonesia. Increase in revenue is directly proportional to the number of middle class also increases.
Shine in Southeast Asia
In addition to Standard Chartered, the Asian Development Bank or Asian Development Bank (ADB) is also quite optimistic about economic growth in Indonesia.
Quoted from the report Asian Development Outlook Edition July 2012, ADB recognizes the global economy is experiencing shocks during 2012 and 2013. Even the latest projection shows an economic growth rate will be lower than the ADB predicted.
ADB forecasts economic growth of developing countries in Asia will weaken in line with world economic conditions are more difficult. Economic slowdown in China and India is also a limiting factor of economic growth.
In 2012, ADB initially forecast growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of developing countries in Asia would be in the range of 6.9 percent, had lowered its forecast to 6.6 percent level.
Countries that fall into this category of emerging Asia are China, India, and ASEAN 5 consists of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
However, behind kekhawatirkan economic weakness, the ADB gave a positive appreciation for the countries of Southeast Asia. This region is predicted to continue to experience continued high economic growth as domestic consumption and post-flood reconstruction in Thailand. Southeast Asia's economy would grow 5.2 per cent believed in 2012 and 5.6 percent in 2013.
Special attention is given ADB on Indonesia's economy. This island nation is believed to be shine despite global economic crisis was hitting. Retail sales rise with increasing domestic consumption plus the strength of consumer confidence, the economy has pushed Indonesoa.
This was supported by government measures while maintaining a looser monetary policy and fiscal stimulus.
Despite confident with the growth in Southeast Asia, ADB warned of the challenges that inflation will continue to soar. It is not detached from the world commodity prices continued to soar.
As the economic outlook is retained, the pressure of domestic consumption to price inflation is also believed to be weaker in the developing countries of Asia. ADB estimates that the inflation rate for 2012 will be down 0.2 percent and rose again the following year.
Until when?
Responding to optimism among businessmen in the country, Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), Sofjan Wanandi, just different opinions. "I include people who are more pessimistic," he told VIVAnews.
Apindo admitted, during Indonesia's economic growth still depends on public consumption which increases with increasing middle class in this country.
Sofjan asserted, among businessmen who were more optimistic possibility into account only the factors of domestic consumption only. Them, he added, forgetting factor counting overseas who are now struggling with the problem of economic slowdown. "Most new entrepreneurs are local only, most of them playing at home," he said.
Indonesia, said Sofjan, should begin to think of balancing the sources of economic growth not only relies on public consumption. Sector investment and exports should be considered a big government agenda of the economy slipped in the coming years.
"At some point the market will be saturated, how about until it happens? Until when are we going to survive with public consumption?" he asked.
Signs of domestic market saturation can also occur with the more strict rules issued by policy makers. For example, a rule the minimum down payment of indirect credit has put the brakes on the growth of motor vehicles in the country.
However, it is recognized Apindo, policy restrictions such advances are made in anticipation of the economic engine overheating (overheating).
Seeing these conditions, Apindo considering all parties to be more careful of any economic development is happening in the world. Not enough of it, governments and enterprises also need to make proper preparation in order to anticipate the situation.
"The factors that most domestic consumption is only able to survive until the end of this year," he said.
The same thing was the Chairman of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin) Indonesia, Bambang Suryo Sulisto. According to him, employers can still be optimistic throughout Indonesia can keep trying to keep pro-business climate.
"That is not to issue government policies that would make it difficult and not friendly to business," he said.
Suryo rate, now is the best momentum for Indonesia to boost the performance of the national economy moving. The reason is simple, Indonesia is now the world's attention as well as foreign investors. "Here we need to keep it shiny," he said.
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